The specificity of this prophecy is unique in the scriptural canon. Other time-specific prophecies (e.g., that the Messiah would be born six hundred years from Lehi’s departure from Jerusalem, and that the Nephites would be destroyed in four hundred years) were uttered about a future so distant that no listener would still be alive. Because six hundred and four hundred are round numbers, they also might be understood by the listeners as generic rather than specific figures. (They are known to have been specific in the Book of Mormon only after their recorded fulfillment.) This five-year prophecy, however, is absolute, finite, and testable within the lifetime of virtually all of Samuel’s listeners.
Like Nephi1’s prophetic vision of the Savior (1 Ne. 11–12), Samuel’s details are firmer and more elaborate than any prophecy recorded from the Old World. I hypothesize that these New World prophecies are qualitatively different those of the Old World because Joseph was translating them after the fact. The originals may have been more ambiguous; but Joseph, clearly understanding their fulfillment, phrased them to reflect his own understanding.
This cannot be the complete explanation, however, because the Nephites and righteous Lamanites genuinely did have more specific prophecies than those in the Old World. I argue that the very locale of fulfillment is a reason for their specificity. The world-altering events in Jerusalem occurred in the same city where the earlier prophets had made their predictions. God’s honoring of human agency required that Jesus be recognized as the Messiah through his own actions, not because of the expectations of those around him. In a very real sense, he became the Messiah in spite of the people’s Messianic expectations. It was also necessary for Jesus to accept his Messianic mission rather than have it thrust upon him.
This requirement to honor the agency of both Jesus and those around him did not exist in the New World. Even this dramatic five-year prophecy influenced the Nephites’ faith only briefly and ultimately condemned many, rather than saving them.